The Oil Market Is Tighter Than It Looks | David Wech

Rory Johnston returns to Oil Ground Up with David Wech, Chief Economist at Vortexa, for a deep dive into one of the most complicated oil markets in recent memory. With crude and refined products moving through increasingly opaque trade routes, Rory and David examine what tanker data is actually telling us about oil on water, the Strait of Hormuz, Russian exports, diesel shortages, China and the changing global flow of barrels. David explains why the global market can simultaneously have plenty of theoretical crude supply while still experiencing severe regional shortages and logistical bottlenecks. They discuss declining U.S. crude exports, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining and export infrastructure, and why diesel may currently be the tightest part of the entire oil complex. The conversation then turns to China, where rising refinery utilization and product exports could be bearish for diesel while increasing China's demand for crude. David also explains how the loss of Iranian barrels, competition for Russian crude, and reduced Atlantic Basin flows into Asia could create another period of significant crude tightness if Middle Eastern exports fail to recover as expected. Finally, Rory and David dig into the challenge of tracking “dark” tanker movements through Hormuz, why short-term transit estimates can be misleading, and the emergence of a shuttle-tanker system moving crude out of the Persian Gulf. David lays out his outlook for the coming months—including the possibility that renewed geopolitical escalation could collide with an Asian market increasingly positioned for higher Middle Eastern supply. Read Rory Johnston’s Commodity Context newsletter: https://www.commoditycontext.com/?utm... TIMESTAMPS 00:00 – Introduction 00:45 – David Wech joins Oil Ground Up 01:35 – Vortexa and tracking the global oil market 02:50 – What is “oil on water”? 04:33 – Why U.S. crude exports have fallen sharply 06:00 – Cushing inventories and the global crude picture 08:21 – Russia, Ukraine and disrupted oil flows 11:55 – Russian refineries and the global diesel shortage 14:13 – Can the U.S. maintain record diesel exports? 16:34 – Why diesel may be the most important oil market right now 18:07 – China could become the major balancing factor 22:19 – The Middle East and the return of “dark” oil flows 23:50 – China's changing crude-buying strategy 27:56 – Could abundant supply eventually drive oil prices lower? 31:25 – How much oil is actually moving through Hormuz? 34:52 – Why real-time tanker data can be misleading 38:42 – Tanker loadings and the buildup outside Hormuz 40:00 – Iraq, Kuwait and UAE exports rise as Saudi Arabia holds back 43:14 – The emergence of a new dark tanker shuttle system 44:30 – Why exporters are becoming more willing to take risks 46:16 – Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea and rerouting crude 48:38 – Risk tolerance is reshaping Middle Eastern exports 50:35 – David's outlook for oil over the next two months 52:59 – China and the biggest oil-market story to watch 54:00 – Closing thoughts Oil Ground Up is distributed in partnership with the Clear Commodity Network and the Oil and Gas Global Network. Topics: oil prices, crude oil, diesel, Strait of Hormuz, tanker tracking, Vortexa, Russian oil, Ukraine, China oil demand, Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, OPEC, oil inventories, oil on water, refining margins, global energy markets. #Oil #CrudeOil #Energy #OilMarket #Commodities #Diesel #OPEC #Hormuz #China #Russia #OilGroundUp