W*T*H: What the Hormuz Is Going On?

In this episode of What's Going on With Shipping, Sal Mercogliano returns to home base to unpack the chaotic and conflicting reports surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. With tensions rising and maritime security at the forefront, we dive deep into the data to separate fact from fiction regarding global oil transit and the reality of the current blockade. Key Topics Covered: ⚓Recent Tanker Attacks: A detailed breakdown of the five most recent attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz, including the Metro Venetian, Al Salam 2, and Bergen. ⚓The "Blockade" Reality: Analyzing the effectiveness of the U.S. naval blockade and why Iranian crude exports have hit record lows while other regional shipping continues under new security protocols. ⚓Oil Export Myths: Debunking reports of "pre-war levels" by calculating the 2.9-billion-barrel deficit in global supply and explaining how global storage is hitting multi-year lows. ⚓Tracking the "Dark" Fleet: How analysts use loading terminal data and offloading sightings to track ships that have turned off their AIS to avoid detection. ⚓Market Impacts: Why shipping rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are soaring to nearly $650,000 per day and what this means for global energy prices. ⚓The "Shuttle" Strategy: How Saudi Arabia (Bahri), Kuwait (KOTC), and the UAE (ADNOC) are using national registries and self-insurance to keep oil moving through the Strait. Contact What's Going on With Shipping via: Patreon: www.patreon.com/wgowshipping Twitter: @mercoglianos Bluesky: @mercoglianos.bsky.social Facebook: @wgowshipping Email: mercoglianosal@gmail.com 00:00 - Introduction & Welcome Back 01:11 - U.S. Strikes on IRGC Targets 02:26 - Analysis of Recent Tanker Attacks 04:11 - Debunking the New Channel Rumors 06:11 - Tracking Transits & Turning Off AIS 07:23 - Mine Clearance vs. Maritime Security 09:10 - Skyrocketing Tanker Rates & Market Impact 13:14 - The Success of the Iranian Oil Blockade 15:32 - How to Actually Track Global Oil Flow 17:03 - The 2.9 Billion Barrel Deficit 19:21 - Data Breakdown: Pre-War vs. Current Levels 21:18 - Visualizing the Crude Oil Tanker Market 25:01 - National Shipping Lines & The "Shuttle" Strategy 27:58 - Final Assessment: The Fragile Global Supply 28:46 - Conclusion & Channel Support Marine Traffic www.marinetraffic.com Seasearcher https://www.seasearcher.com U.S. Strikes Iran as Tanker Attacks Raise Stakes in Strait of Hormuz https://gcaptain.com/u-s-strikes-iran... Tom Bike on X https://x.com/tom_bike CENTCOM Says Iran Attempts to Intimidate Shipping with False Reports https://maritime-executive.com/articl... INTERTANKO: Hormuz Mine Clearance ‘Not Sufficient’ to Restore Normal Shipping https://gcaptain.com/intertanko-hormu... Iranian Misrepresentations Over the Strait of Hormuz Addressed by Oman https://maritime-executive.com/articl... Hormuz ‘storm’ propels VLCC spot market, asset prices and long-term rates https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158317/... Oil Tankers Make Fortunes During War as Sinokor Dominates https://gcaptain.com/oil-tankers-make... Iran Reaches Seven Weeks Without Crude Exports Due to US Hormuz Blockade https://www.marinelink.com/news/iran-... Michelle Wiese Bockman on X https://x.com/Michellewb_