Who Actually Runs US Monetary Policy

Banks have just posted a strong quarter and the market is calm. Christopher Whalen is not reassured. Whalen spent four decades on Wall Street, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear Stearns and Prudential, then as Head of Research at Kroll Bond Rating Agency. He now runs Whalen Global Advisors and writes The Institutional Risk Analyst. He reads bank balance sheets for a living, and his argument here is that the numbers look clean for a reason that should worry you rather than settle you. Loss rates are near zero on single family mortgages because inflation took home prices up 50% in four years, so a defaulted loan costs the bank nothing. On apartment buildings the loss at default has been close to 100%, and the difference is politics rather than economics. Meanwhile the fastest growing category on US bank balance sheets is a sleepy line item called "all other loans" — lending to non-bank financial firms, margin credit, securities purchases. All of it market risk rather than credit risk. He explains why United Wholesale ended up in the arms of Oaktree, why the Treasury's bond buybacks achieve nothing at all, why he thinks Warsh and Bessent are on the same page rather than at odds, and what he would do about the deficit if anyone asked him. Then he says something about the dollar that most American commentators would not. In this conversation: Why unusually low credit losses are an anomaly rather than a clean bill of health Why a defaulted single family mortgage now costs a bank close to nothing Why apartment buildings lose almost 100% at default, and why the answer is rent control Almost half of all US homes are already falling in value United Wholesale, a $600 million rate bet, and Oaktree as "the grim reaper of Wall Street" Why the non-bank mortgage sector may have more systemic problems before year end Why "all other loans" is the fastest growing category on US bank balance sheets Why the next problem comes from the market side, not the lending side $40 trillion in debt, a possible $2 trillion deficit, and no discussion of slowing down Why the Treasury is the dog and the Federal Reserve is its alter ego What he would demand of Congress if he were Treasury Secretary Why doubling Treasury bond buybacks is a press release and nothing more Why Warsh and Bessent are not actually in conflict Why the US does not deserve a strong currency Part two, on affordability and the housing market, is out [DAY]. FOLLOW CHRISTOPHER WHALEN The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanaly... His book, Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream: https://www.amazon.com/dp/139428571X X: https://x.com/rcwhalen LinkedIn:   / rcwhalen   His column at National Mortgage News: https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/... Buy Precious Metals at: https://www.goldsilver.com Learn about Gold & Silver: https://goldsilver.com/learn/ Subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/goldsilver?... Get Essential Gold & Silver News—Delivered Twice a Week: https://goldsilver.com/join-our-newsl... Follow us on Twitter:   / goldsilver_com   Follow us on Facebook:   / goldsilverdotcom   As always, thank you for your support. The GoldSilver Team 0:00 "The Fed Is A Convenient Facade" 0:13 Introducing Christopher Whalen 1:01 Four Decades Watching Banks And Non-Banks 1:36 Wall Street Is Doing Great. Banking Isn't. 2:08 Why Low Credit Losses Are An Anomaly 2:27 A Defaulted Mortgage That Costs The Bank Nothing 3:05 Apartments Lose 100%, And The Reason Is Politics 3:50 Half Of US Homes Are Already Falling In Value 4:06 United Wholesale, The Rate Bet, And Oaktree 5:33 Is It A One-Off? No. 6:22 "People Have Predicted This For Years" 6:45 Why The Risk Moved To The Market Side 7:57 The Deficit Nobody In Washington Mentions 9:52 The Treasury Is The Dog 10:13 What He'd Do As Treasury Secretary 10:45 Why Bond Buybacks Achieve Nothing 12:25 Warsh And Bessent Are Not In Conflict 13:36 Why The US Doesn't Deserve A Strong Currency