The Chokepoints Changing Global Shipping Forever with Sal Mercogliano | TGS 227

(Conversation recorded on June 29th, 2026) Roughly a fifth of the world's oil and more than a tenth of all global trade has been navigating a literal minefield, a wary insurance industry, and whipsawing geopolitics since late February of this year. But looking beyond the Strait of Hormuz closure itself, the same pattern threatens every critical chokepoint: passages open to all shipping for the past 80 years are becoming strategic assets within a geopolitical power struggle. If we continue this trend, what does a more fragmented, higher-cost, higher-risk maritime system mean for the norms and safety of the shipping industry, and what are the ripple effects for global trade? In this episode, Nate is joined by maritime historian and former merchant mariner, Sal Mercogliano (‪@wgowshipping‬ ) to break down what the ongoing events in the Strait of Hormuz reveal about the state of global shipping and trade. Sal traces how the rise of unregistered "dark fleet" tankers and increasing risk – and subsequent cost – of maritime trade are reshaping the safety and stability of shipping across the globe. He also walks through who actually "owns" the Strait of Hormuz, the improvised insurance and security arrangements now propping up tanker traffic, and the human toll on the roughly 20,000 mariners who have been stranded, attacked, or killed since the crisis began. Ultimately, Sal examines how the 80-year-old norm of ‘freedom of the seas’ is being tested by this standoff, exposing the fragile foundation of our hyper-complex, just-in-time shipping system. Why does the volume and velocity of modern trade make a conflict like the one in the Strait of Hormuz so much more consequential than at any other time in history? Is "might makes right" becoming the central pillar governing the world's oceans, and if so, what does that mean for the cost of everything that arrives by ship? And what does this conflict reveal about the stability of our highly interdependent system as global powers continue to fracture and isolate? About Sal Mercogliano: Dr. Salvatore R. Mercogliano is an associate professor of history at Campbell University in North Carolina and adjunct professor at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy. He holds a bachelor of science in marine transportation from the State University of New York Maritime College, along with a merchant marine deck officer license (unlimited tonnage 2nd mate), a master’s in maritime history and nautical archaeology from East Carolina University, and a Ph.D. in military and naval history from the University of Alabama. He is also the host of the popular podcast What’s Going on With Shipping, which focuses on Maritime Industry Policy, current events in the Maritime Sector, and Maritime History. Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.co... Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie:    • The Great Simplification | Film on Energy,...   --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future: https://www.thegreatsimplification.co... Join our Substack newsletter: https://natehagens.substack.com/ Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners: https://www.hylo.com/groups/the-great... --- 0:00 Global Shipping Stakes 0:48 Guest Introduction 2:44 Who Controls Hormuz 6:39 Freedom of the Seas 11:26 Chokepoints and Cascades 15:38 Resilience Vs. Just In Time 25:14 Insurance War Risk Explained 32:28 Redrawing Supply Chains 36:07 Dark Fleet And Lawlessness 45:04 Net Zero Fuel Shift 53:20 Bulk Ore & Fertilizer Megaports 58:02 Arctic Routes Rising 1:04:34 Trade Blocks Fracture 1:15:24 Updating UNCLOS 1:19:35 Finite Resources Advice 1:23:08 Nuclear Risk Ahead 1:26:06 Governing a Fractured World 1:29:22 Closing Thanks & Credits