The 4% Rule Failed 4 Times in 98 Years. Here's the Number I'm Actually Using

Is the 4% rule still the gold standard for your retirement withdrawal strategy? See how changing your withdrawal rate impacts your portfolio. This breakdown analyzes the effectiveness of the 4% rule by looking at nearly a century of stock market history. Ready for Coast FIRE? Watch this video next:    • Coast FIRE: The Number That Sets You FREE ...   STUFF I RECOMMEND!* Personal Finance - My FAVORITE Investing Apps: 🤑 Claim 12 FREE STOCKS worth up to $3,600 with Webull! ► https://www.webull.com/k/BobSharpe 🤑 BEST Investing App for Research and Investing/Options with Moomoo ► https://sharpemoney.com/go/moomoo Track and Budget with my Very Own Budgeting Template: 📊 The Ultimate Transaction Register - track your budget the real way ► https://sharpemoney.com/downloads/the... Saving Money & Grabbing Deals 💰 Get Legitimate Cash Back at Gas Stations, Restaurants, and More with Upside App (app is free to use!!) ► https://sharpemoney.com/go/upside 📱Get a Discount on Mint Mobile and Pay Less for your Cell Phone Bill (I Save $2,000 a year!!) ► https://sharpemoney.com/go/mintmobile/ We also use a FIRE calculator to model different scenarios. You will see firsthand how specific withdrawal assumptions affect your end balance and total portfolio growth over time. For example, moving to a 5% withdrawal rate significantly changes the success probability, failing 18 out of 69 times in this analysis. This data helps you make informed adjustments to your own retirement planning based on real-world outcomes rather than theory. Chapters of Today's Video: 0:00 The 4% Rule's Only 4 Failures in 98 Years 0:23 Building My Own Backtest (1928–2025) 0:50 Is 4% Actually Outdated? 1:19 The Backtest Rules (60/40 Portfolio) 1:30 3.5%: The Rate That Never Failed 1:59 4%: 65 Out of 69 Survived 2:26 The Flat Tire Analogy 3:17 1966 vs. 1982: Same Rate, Opposite Outcomes 4:03 Pushing to 4.7% and 5% 4:26 Bengen's Real Portfolio (Not Just 60/40) 5:29 The 4.7% and 5% Survival Numbers 6:37 The Strategy I Actually Use 7:05 Stress-Testing a Market Crash 7:41 Worse Than 2008 or 1929 8:23 Scaling Back Instead of Panicking 9:07 The One Number to Remember 9:37 Should You Just Buy SPYI? 10:26 Dividends vs. Total Return 11:15 Final Thoughts *Disclaimer: Bob is not a financial advisor. No information, expressed or implied, indicates any level of financial, tax, or legal advice. Please contact a professional & licensed advisor prior to making any decisions. Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies in which Bob Sharpe earns an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Bob Sharpe is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available.