Why James Carville Says Trump Is Losing Even When He Wins

James and Al warn of Trump losing strength with the base after the win of Lindsey Graham’s sister in South Carolina, while emphasizing the overall decline in support for MAGA. Then, they welcome Stanford Law Professor Pam Karlan to discuss SCOTUS and its recent rulings, explain the shadow docket, and the defense of our democracy coming from lower-level judges and our Constitution. Then, they are joined by congressional candidate for VA-02 and Navy veteran Elaine Luria to review Trump’s disastrous effect on our military readiness and the need to focus 2026 midterm campaigns on affordability, healthcare, and bringing the war in Iran to a close. Email your questions to James and Al at politicswarroom@gmail.com or tweet them to @politicon. Make sure to include your city– we love to hear where you’re from! Timestamps: 00:00 — Reaction to Trump's underwhelming SC and OK primary wins 03:20 — James's imaginary campaign memo daring Darlene Graham into three debates 06:25 — The US-Canada trade breakdown and Howard Lutnick's "suck" comment 07:34 — James's tribute to Canada as a longtime American ally 12:00 — Pam Karlan joins: the shadow docket and mail-in voting restrictions 17:19 — What exactly is the shadow docket, and how has its use changed? 21:43 — The White House ballroom case and Judge Millette's Statue of Liberty question 24:06 — Justice Alito staying on the court; Justice Barrett's occasional moderation 27:22 — Birthright citizenship, the Fourteenth Amendment, and the Fifth Circuit 34:26 — Elaine Luria joins: responding to the "communism" attack 37:26 — Iran war deployments and the USS Lincoln's extended time at sea 39:40 — The push to rename the USS Doris Miller after Trump 43:19 — Corruption on the campaign trail: Trump's stock trades and reported gains 47:33 — Defense Secretary Hegseth and the firing of senior military leaders 51:11 — Losing institutional knowledge in the military's senior ranks 57:01 — Outrage of the week: Albert remembers Senator Nancy Kassebaum 59:04 — James's outrage: corruption as the defining issue of the era 1:01:19 — Listener Q&A: what a JD Vance presidency would look like 1:02:25 — Are the East Wing demolition contractors in legal jeopardy? 1:03:24 — Why the immunity decision might be the worst ruling of this era 1:05:06 — The Medicare for All vs. public option debate 1:07:43 — Abdul El-Sayed, Hassan Piker, and antisemitism concerns 1:09:38 — Democrats' post-midterm agenda and message 1:10:02 — James: Schumer and Jeffries need to treat the GOP as "treasonous felons" 1:12:04 — Praise for Ro Khanna and the "Team America" slogan pitch 1:12:45 — How Democrats can effectively message Trump's corruption