2028 Presidential Preview: AOC Rising, Newsom Overrated, Harris Out | Super Tuesdays Politics

With under 80 days to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza pause the horse race for a full "where are we now" audit of the 2028 Democratic field — prompted, Chris admits, by listener pushback that they'd been too dismissive of Gavin Newsom. Using the Kalshi and Polymarket odds as a starting point rather than gospel, they work through a top tier of AOC, Newsom, and Jon Ossoff. Chuck's central thesis is that AOC could become a magnetic force on the scale of Trump in 2016 or Obama in 2008 — a candidacy the entire field gets measured against, potentially freezing out half the governors and senators eyeing a run. He maps how she could be the frontrunner while playing underdog in South Carolina, and why the new calendar's crowded first state may actually cushion her. On Newsom, Chuck is blunt: the prediction markets are artificially inflating him, the attention economy is doing the work, and a California governor with a mixed record has no obvious state to win. They also make the case that Kamala Harris ultimately doesn't run — and that not running is the smarter play for 2032. The back half turns to the field's second tier and its long shots: whether Mark Kelly has the hunger and the issue to go with the biography (Chuck's dream ticket: Kelly and Warnock, order randomized), why John Glenn and Bill Bradley are the cautionary tales for résumé candidates, whether Ossoff can realistically jump straight from an $87 million Senate race into a billion-dollar presidential campaign, and a genuine dark-horse case for Rahm Emanuel built on the party's underinvestment in rural Black voters. They preview Tuesday's Florida primary — Byron Donalds's real ceiling, why Chuck thinks the general could land inside five points, and Corey Mills, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Alex Vindman. Then the tone shifts hard: an angry, unsparing exchange about the expired US-Iran memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz, conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, and Pete Hegseth's fitness for the job. Timeline: 00:00 A full 2028 Democratic audit 01:06 Why Chuck thinks JD Vance will divide the right 02:08 The prediction markets as one data point, not the whole story 02:55 AOC, Newsom, Ossoff at the top 05:12 Could AOC suck up all the oxygen 06:15 The egg-freezing story as proof of her magnetic pull 06:42 Skeptical Newsom can play in Michigan, Iowa, South Carolina 07:30 The impossible position for Newsom 08:16 AOC's advantage — no long record to defend 09:38 Could egg-freezing access become an issue she champions? 10:01 How her presence could paralyze half the field before it starts 10:57 Where does that leave Pritzker? Or Ossoff? 11:59 The formalized DNC calendar 13:37 Nevada, Michigan and the Culinary Union question 14:42 Why a crowded South Carolina helps the progressive lane 15:49 Newsom's real problem: where does he actually win? 16:59 Harris's East Coast headquarters lesson 20:10 Ossoff, Buttigieg & who's willing to burn the boats 21:08 Newsom one-on-one vs. Newsom in a big room 23:04 Harris analysis: you don't buy in Malibu if you're running 25:01 Newsom and Harris can't both run 26:20 Mark Kelly in Iowa 27:15 Chuck's lab-built ticket: an astronaut and a pastor 27:50 Will the Democratic base accept Kelly? 30:45 How Trump's attacks on Kelly may have helped him 31:33 The real gap: Kelly has no signature issue 32:03 AOC is the change candidate 33:30 The cautionary tales 35:08 Kelly's habit of yelling to show energy 36:55 If not AOC, then Ro Khanna 37:16 Pritzker at 1% — the governor who could reach the left 37:46 Chuck's real dark horse: Rahm Emanuel 39:32 Democrats' rural problem isn't just rural whites 39:59 The left will never accept him 42:27 The Wisconsin lesson: Crowley won against something 42:50 Tuesday's primary 43:35 Jolly-Donalds could land inside five points 44:01 Why Florida isn't as noncompetitive as people assume 44:44 Could DeSantis win a third term? 45:24 What's Donalds's real number? 46:16 The Mel Martinez precedent 48:29 Why Chuck thinks Jerry Demings had the better shot at Donalds 49:56 The 2018 what-if 50:43 Credit to DeSantis for saying what Trump never does 54:23 The US-Iran memorandum expires with no deal 55:46 A $1.5 trillion budget and a carrier crew that can't get fed 56:33 Operationally a disaster — and where's the audit? 57:57 Damaging the last institution still standing Follow me on ALL the socials: X: https://x.com/chriscillizza TikTok:   / officialchriscillizza   Insta:   / cillizzac   BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/chriscillizz... Threads: https://www.threads.net/@cillizzac Facebook:   / chris.cillizza   And SUBSCRIBE to my daily politics newsletter here: https://chriscillizza.substack.com/ Want to make a donation to support my efforts as an independent news creator? Do it here: https://buymeacoffee.com/chriscillizza #news #politics #politicalnews #politicalanalysis #president #democrats #election