The Black Sea Just Shut Down — Here's What That Means for Your Flour and Bread Prices

Attacks on shipping, ports, and grain export terminals in the Black Sea have shut down more than 97% of Russia and Ukraine's combined grain export capacity. Chicago wheat futures are up nearly 30% year to date. Russia rejected a ceasefire proposal on August 19th. Russia and Ukraine together supply 32% of global wheat trade. When this corridor was last severely disrupted in 2022, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics documented flour prices rising 48.4% and bakery products rising 12.2% — with a lag of months, and the retail increases persisted even after wheat futures corrected. COMPLETE SOURCE LIST: • Arab News/AFP (97% shutdown): arabnews.pk/node/2655265/world • Moscow Times (Novorossiysk terminals): themoscowtimes.com/2026/08/17 • CNBC (Novorossiysk attack): cnbc.com/2026/08/13/ukraine-russia-novorossiysk-grain.html • CNBC Africa/Reuters (global wheat buyers): cnbcafrica.com/2026/global-wheat-buyers-brace • IFPRI analysis (August 19, 2026): ifpri.org/blog/tensions-in-the-black-sea • The Conversation: theconversation.com/russia-is-cutting-off-ukraines-grain-exports-289718 • Ag Bull Trading: agbull.com/black-sea-port-war-pushes-the-grain-market-toward-a-physical-supply-shock • Agweek (2022 comparison): agweek.com/business/markets/the-wheat-is-there-can-the-black-sea-move-it • Trading Economics (wheat prices): tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat • Business Recorder (Chicago wheat): brecorder.com/news/40434092 • Milling and Grain: millingandgrain.com/ukraine-grain-exports-blockade-cuts-shipments • BLS flour/bakery data: bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-14/bakery-products-btn.htm • JPMorgan/Yahoo Finance: finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/jpmorgan-warns-brutal-grocery-shock • Farm Policy News (IFPRI summary): farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2026/08 • ZeroHedge/Bloomberg (Ukraine exports 20%): seemorerocks.substack.com • Down to Earth (Ukraine export forecast): downtoearth.org.in/agriculture/russia-is-cutting-off 🌟 Hey there, Dazers! Let’s talk about how you can support SuttonsDaze — and your own preparedness journey — all at the same time! 🌟 You know me — I’m always testing new tools, trying new gear, and sharing the real results so you can make smart choices for your pantry and preparedness goals. But did you know you can help keep those videos coming just by shopping through my affiliate links? Every time you use one of my links, it doesn’t cost you a penny more — but it helps me keep bringing you honest reviews, real-world tutorials, and those practical preparedness videos we all love. 🛒 Your Support Makes a Difference: 📚 And don’t forget my books! Find my preparedness guides and planners right here: 👉 On Etsy: https://www.etsy.com/listing/43003369... 👉 On Amazon: https://amzn.to/3WlYgUy Your clicks help me test new equipment, create more videos, and keep building the resources that make preparedness simple, affordable, and doable — for everyone. 💬 So the next time you’re stocking up or upgrading your gear, start with one of my links — and together, we’ll keep stacking that peace of mind, one jar at a time. ❤️ ❤️HANG OUT WITH ME: ➡️BECOME A PANTRY PAL (Optional Membership Community):    / @suttonsdaze   Facebook:   / suttonsdaze   Facebook Private Group:   / suttonsdaze   Instagram:   / suttonsdaze   ❤️Email: SuttonsDaze@outlook.com ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ Mailing Address ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ SuttonsDaze P.O.Box 45 Mikado, MI 48745 Disclaimer In compliance with FTC guidelines: Any/all of the links on the site/video are affiliate links of which SuttonsDaze receives product credit or a small commission from sales of certain items, but the price is the same for you. SuttonsDaze is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program. Affiliate Disclaimer As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. This means that some of the links on this site (or in my emails and social media posts) are affiliate links, and if you click through and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission at no additional cost to you. I only recommend products or services I believe will provide value to my audience. These commissions help support my work and allow me to continue creating content to serve you better. Amazon and the Amazon logo are trademarks of Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates. Participation in the Amazon Associates Program is governed by the program’s terms and conditions, and I comply fully with all disclosure requirements as outlined by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and Amazon’s Operating Agreement. Thank you for your support!l.