Something Just Broke the Bond Market

🚨 CHECK OUT TBL PULSE: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/ In this episode, Nik covers the chaos in global government bond markets, with yields rising from the United States to Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. He explains what actually drives bond yields, why inflation is structurally higher in 2026 than in the last fifteen years, and why Kevin Warsh told G20 finance leaders that the global savings glut is reversing into an investment surge. Nik walks through how the AI buildout is pulling capital out of treasuries, why NVIDIA chips are becoming bond collateral, and which countries actually have to worry. He closes with a tour of TBL Pulse and why Johan Bergman's state grid shows bitcoin leaving the capitulation zone. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Casa. A good custody setup survives any single failure, whether that is a lost device, a vendor's bug, or a mistake of your own. Casa is multivendor multisig: your bitcoin sits in a vault with keys spread across hardware from different manufacturers, so a bug in any one device leaves your bitcoin untouched. Casa holds one key for recovery and you hold the rest, so Casa can never move your funds. Their most popular plan is Casa Premium, a five-key vault with an onboarding kit and an advisor setup call. They can hold your hand, but they won't hold your keys. Use coupon TBL for 10% off: https://casa.io/premium Timestamps: 00:00 Chaos in the global bond market 00:53 Yields around the world: US, Japan, Germany, France, UK 02:11 Two regimes: the QE era and what came after 04:30 What actually drives bond yields 07:57 Warsh at the G20: the savings glut is reversing 10:14 Sleeping capital and the AI investment surge 12:10 The chip race and the competition wave 14:28 NVIDIA chips as bond collateral 16:11 Existing money, repo, and how the buildout gets funded 18:26 Why the investing public doesn't want government paper 20:34 Who actually has to worry: the UK, France, Germany, Japan 22:48 bitcoin as wealth held outside the deposit system 24:49 The reversal of the global savings glut 25:20 A tour of TBL Pulse 27:28 Why rising yields and a stronger dollar pull liquidity down 28:04 Johan's state grid and leaving capitulation 29:34 Trend lines and how TBL thinks across three timeframes 📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. 🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. 🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB