Russia’s Next Move: Why Diplomacy Could Mean More Fighting in Ukraine

Russia, Ukraine, and the United States may be approaching another diplomatic window. But there is a major contradiction: negotiations are becoming more serious while military pressure is increasing. In this episode of Jiang Predicts, we examine why the Russia Ukraine war may enter a period of bargaining under fire rather than immediate peace. What does Vladimir Putin actually want before negotiations? How far can Volodymyr Zelensky resist Russian pressure? What leverage does Donald Trump still have over Moscow and Kyiv? And could shortages in Ukrainian air defense change the entire strategic equation? Using the Jiang Predicts forecasting framework, we break the Russia Ukraine war into three possible scenarios, assign probabilities to each outcome, and identify the signals that could confirm or invalidate the forecast. We also examine Russian missile and drone pressure, Ukrainian deep strikes, United States sanctions, air defense constraints, territorial negotiations, and the possibility of renewed talks. The next phase of the Russia Ukraine war may not begin with a peace agreement. It may begin with both sides trying to create maximum leverage before serious bargaining starts. Subscribe to Jiang Predicts for evidence-based geopolitical forecasting, three-scenario analysis, and the signals that reveal the next move before it becomes obvious.    / @thejiangpredicts   #RussiaUkraine #UkraineWar #Geopolitics #Russia #Ukraine #JiangPredicts